Simla Stock：The iPhone breaks the promotion, the Indian market is increasing, and Apple climbs another $ 3 trillion

As the benchmark of global technology companies, Apple's market value set a new high in early August this year, breaking through a $ 3 trillion mark.However, due to the fluctuations in markets such as mobile phones and PCs and the influence of various external factors, in recent months, Apple ’s stock price is ups and downs, and the market is waiting for when Apple can stand again to stand 3 trillion US dollars.High points.

After four months of waiting, this node was fixed on December 5, local time in the United States.As of the closing of US stocks that day, Apple's stock price closed at $ 193.42, an increase of 2.11%, with a total market value of 3.01 trillion US dollars.

Near the end of 2023, Apple's stock price of $ 3 trillion was re -cleaned, which can also be regarded as a tail for the past year.Looking back at the past year, as a product that contributed nearly half of the income, the iPhone failed to be spared to the decline in the entire environment.In order to boost sales, channel vendors had to cut prices to promote, and the new product on sale and breaking acceleration, and the return of Huawei 5G gave Apple a heavy blow.

However, it is still necessary to point out that while most mobile phone brands are at a loss, Apple has earned 80 % of the world's profits.In addition, the rise of the Indian market also made Apple find a new capacity.

Ivan Lam, a senior analyst of Counterpoint, told the Titanium Media APP that "India has become the largest country in population, and the birth rate is not bad. The young group is huge and active. For Apple, it is an important potential market for the next ten years."

Sales on sale, Huawei's strange attack, iPhone "forced" price reduction price reduction

Judging from Apple's latest third -quarter financial report data, the company's overall revenue was US $ 89.498 billion. The iPhone, as a fist product, contributed nearly half of its revenue.Therefore, to some extent, the market performance of the iPhone determines the overall judgment of investors to Apple.

According to the latest report released by the market research agency Counterpoint Research, the global smartphone shipments this year are expected to be 1.2 billion, a decrease of 5%year -on -year, the lowest level in the past ten years.The narrowing market has exacerbated the industry's competition and "inner volume".In order to maintain the overall growth, the price of iPhone has also experienced many fluctuations in the past year.

Earlier this year, the iPhone14 series opened the price reduction promotion in authorized stores and third -party e -commerce platforms. The topic of "iPhone14 was reduced by 700 yuan" was also on the hot search list.An authorized store employee had told the Titanium Media APP that at that time, iPhone14 was squeezed out of many inventory, coupled with high sales pressure at the beginning of the year and the market industry was not good. The fastest and most effective way to reduce prices was the most effective way.

If the price reduction at the beginning of the year is to clear the inventory, then the iPhone15 series of new products will subsidize the promotion for more than a month, and it is difficult to find another reason to justify.After all, the iPhone14 series has been listed and sold for three or four months when the price reduction year, and the iPhone15 series has just been released.

Judging from the public subsidy information of the Double 11 channels, JD.com authorized the self -operated store to discount 1100 yuan, and Apple's official flagship store on Tmall also launched subsidies for "over 6988 yuan minus 500 yuan".Although these subsidies are the behavior of e -commerce platforms, the direct -operated channels have not reduced their prices, but they are enough to see the pressure on the iPhone15 series of sales.

"Still the product power is too bad, no innovation that can stimulate consumers to buy pain points." A analyst pointed out to the Titanium Media APP. "The market has been boredThere are also many products that can be replaced in the market, not loyal powder, the willingness to pay for it is easy to shake. "

Earlier, Cinno Research predicted that the sales volume of Apple mobile phones in the Indian smartphone market in 2023 may reach 45.5 million units, a slight decline of 2%year -on -year.Among them, Apple's latest iPhone 15 series models will sell for about 10 million units in 2023. Compared with the previous generation iPhone 14 series sales results have fallen by 22%at the same period, a decrease of about 2.9 million units.

Ivan Lam, a senior analyst of Counterpoint, also pointed out that the iPhone15 series of stocks are currently about 80 million units, which may be slightly less than 80 million units.Apple will adjust the 2024 Q1 production plan based on the sales of October or November.

In addition to the "lack" of its own product power, the strong return of Huawei mobile phones also gave Apple a heavy blow.UBS's shipments of the iPhone15 series also show that it is due to the risks such as Huawei new machines.Martin Yang, an analyst of the investment bank OPPPENHEIMER, said that due to the launch of Huawei's new mobile phones, iPhone shipments could be reduced by 10 million units in 2024.

On August 29, the Huawei Mate60 Pro was not sold first, which caused the market to grab the market, and then launched a series of products such as the Mate60 Standard Edition, which is also difficult to find.Until now, the Huawei Mate 60 series is still in the state of price increase purchase. In contrast, Apple's market value has evaporated by more than 40 billion US dollars on the iPhone15 series on the day of release.Essence

CANALYSY research analyst Zhong Xiaolei told Titanium Media APP that Apple is expected to be more challenged in the future.In the current imbalance of supply and demand, Huawei is also actively locking the demand as early as possible through 90 -day pre -order and other measures to prevent the loss or transfer of demand for suppressed by less than the situation.Simla Stock

Guo Tianxiang, a senior analyst of IDC India, also believes that in the future, with the return of Huawei's return and other domestic Android manufacturers to strive to establish its own high -end product rhythm and high -end brand image, Apple will encounter greater challenges in the Indian high -end mobile phone market.

The supply chain transfer, the Indian market becomes a new increase

Since the beginning of this year, Cook has successively "show" the Indian market, the opening of the direct stores and localized production, which has accelerated the infiltration of the iPhone in the high -end user group.Not only that, with Apple's emphasis on the Indian market, many fruit chain companies have also begun to transfer.

Ivan Lam told the Titanium Media APP that it is imperative to move to India.The advantage of building factories in India and Southeast Asia is close to the market. The future potential is huge, and you can enjoy policy dividends within a certain period of time.Fruit chain companies, especially some local orders are enough to support local operations, will gradually move over.

Statistics released by Counterpoint Research show that in the second quarter of 2023, the Indian market revenue performance surpassed France and Germany for the first time, and only after the United Kingdom, Japan, India and the United States, became Apple's fifth largest iPhone market.

Canalys analyst Sanyam Chaurasia told the Titanium Media APP that with the growth of disposable income, India's high -end segment market is also increasing, and this market segment has not been affected by macro -related issues.

At the third quarter performance telephone, Cook also mentioned a new high in the company's revenue in India.According to regulatory documents submitted by Apple to the Company Registry (ROC), Apple's sales in India in fiscal 2022-23 increased 48%in India to 493.21 billion, and net profit increased by 76%to 22.29 billion rupees.

At the same time, the report of the Counterpoint also pointed out that the trend of ultra -high -end (more than 45,000 Indian rupees, about RMB 4,000) is developing steadily every quarter, and the market in the third quarter increased by 44%year -on -year.In the third quarter of 2023, Apple hit a new quarterly shipping volume, with more than 2.5 million units.

It is worth noting that compared with the seizure of the Indian market, as Apple's third largest market, the Indian market contributed 17%of its performance in the third quarter, but the decline was second only to Japan.

"The Indian market is a considerable growth potential market. For Apple, it is an important potential market for the next ten years. Apple has already regarded India as a strategic market, and cooperative production and manufacturing supply chain has gradually entered India."Sustainable work", Ivan Lam stated to the Titanium Media APP. "Apple has always maintained a better brand image in India, and staged marketing and sales strategies have achieved a good response.In terms of construction, it continuously consolidates its user stickiness and increases the cost of replacement.

Morgan Stanley analysts have released an estimated report saying that in the next 5 years, the Indian market accounts for 15%of Apple's total revenue and 20%in production in production.

Tianfeng International Securities Analyst Guo Mingzheng also said that in 2023, about 12%to 14%of the iPhone worldwide in India is produced in India. If everything goes well, the proportion of iPhone produced in India in 2024 will increase to 20%to 25%.

For Cook, I also want to copy the "Indian experience" to the Indian market.From the perspective of objective data, the population of high -speed growth allows India to be in the "demographic dividend" stage. The low labor cost will save a lot of manpower for enterprises.

A Foxconn intermediary revealed to the Titanium Media APP that the monthly salary of Foxconn's general workers was around 800-1000 yuan, and the graduate students who just graduated were less than 2,000 yuan.In contrast, the basic salary of the official work in China is more than 2,000 yuan, and the graduate salary is about 10,000 yuan.

However, manpower is only part of the cost. India's labor cost is low, but the efficiency is also low."The quality and consciousness of employees are difficult to train and manage. A domestic person can do three people in India."

The intermediary also revealed that the yield and efficiency of the Indian factories have a lot of gaps with domestic.It is reported that in February this year, Foxconn's Indian factory complained that the qualification rate of the back case they received was less than 50%, which seriously slowed down the speed of assembling iPhone.Not only that, but also the iPhone15 compiled by India also attracted the "dislike" of the market.

There is no doubt that, compared to the gradually saturated markets such as India, India will become the focus of Apple's new growth.But as for the transfer of the industrial chain, some companies have shaken.As the intermediary said, "it is not so easy to take over India."

The ups and downs of the ups and downs are 3 trillion US dollars. Where is the next breakthrough of Apple?

As of the closing of US stocks on December 5, Apple's stock price closed at 193.42 US dollars, an increase of 2.11%, and the total market value reinstated at 3 trillion US dollars.At this moment, many investors have waited for 4 months.

In early 2022, Apple first touched a $ 3 trillion mark.After the closing on June 30 this year, Apple officially stood at 3 trillion US dollars, becoming the world's first company with a market value of more than $ 3 trillion, and the subsequent stock price rose up to 198.23 US dollars.However, after reaching a high point in the middle of the year, affected by the market environment, and Apple's own product power was challenged and questioned, Apple's stock price fell to $ 165.

Since the beginning of this year, Apple's stock price has increased by 49.7%, and the overall performance has been very good.However, compared with Nvidia, Tesla and other technology giants, Apple's performance is not too outstanding.

For the rise of Apple's stock price, some analysts believe that this is the most powerful performance of Apple's stability.At the same time, the recovery of the industry environment also allows investors to see Apple's new round of growth.

Countpoint previously released a report that it is expected that global smartphone shipments will increase by 3%year -on -year in 2024, and the recovery of emerging markets will be more obvious; Canalys is expected to rebound by 2024, the global smartphone market will rebound, and shipments will reach 1.17 billionThe ministry rose 4%compared to 2023.

The same is true of the PC market. Morgan Chase believes that the PC manufacturer's shipment forecast has been revised for the first time in a long time, and it is expected to grow in 2024.The forecast of Canalys states that PC shipments in 2024 are expected to increase by 8%to 267 million units year -on -year.

The recovery of the mobile phone and the PC market is good news for Apple, and it is also the key to whether its market value can last for $ 3 trillion.In addition, in 2024, the sale of Apple Vision Pro will also open a new increase for Apple.If the market is given positive feedback, it will further enhance the valuation of investors in Apple.

However, there is another uncertain factor in front of Apple, which is AI applications.It is worth noting that the heating prediction of market institutions on terminals such as PC is more based on the growth of AI applications.Canalys pointed out that artificial intelligence (AI) PC will be one of the growth momentum, and the proportion of AI PC in 2024 will reach 19%.

Compared with most companies on the market, Apple's performance in AI is more cautious.In the first and second and two quarters, Apple did not disclose too much about the generation AI, and maintained a more prudent attitude.At the third quarter performance meeting, Cook revealed that Apple is investing in generating the generative AI.

Earlier, it was reported that Apple was recruiting related to Da AI, and accelerated the landing of AI technology by mergers and acquisitions of startups.According to data from Jibang Consultation, Apple has acquired more than 20 AI -related companies since 2018.Cook said AI technology behind these functions, but we did not use AI to promote it.As for the generation AI, it is also investing in funds to carry out various tasks.

Indeed, from the perspective of IOS 17's voice functions and decline detection on Apple Watch, AI has become an important part of Apple ecological products.However, the market probably wants to see Apple's application of large models on the end side, especially mobile phones and PCs, which are considered to be the first carrier of large models to achieve revolution.In the future, whether Apple's stock price can continue to rise, it is likely to depend on how much Apple's "AI containing" on the product side is.Bangalore Stock Exchange

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