Ahmedabad Stock：Continue to fall from the highest level of history created on September 26 (26216.05 points) and the historic high in the trading of September 27 (26277.35 points)

In the past four and a half years, a cumulative increase in the major stock index in emerging markets has even exceeded all developed market stock indexes, and it is the world, which is India.From the beginning of April 2020 to the end of September 2024, the cumulative increase in the India Mencius Sensex30 index reached 186.1%, far exceeding the US stock indexes, the S & P 500 and many major European market stock indexes in the same period.However, since October, the Mumbai Sensex Index has fallen by 2.94%.With the market's concerns about India's economic growth, the Indian stock market has sold sharply.From September 30th to October 4th, foreign capital sold about $ 4.5 billion in Indian stocks, which is the largest sales of the Indian stock market in history.Preliminary data released by the Indian State Stock Exchange on October 15 shows that from October 1st to 14th this year, foreign capital has sold a total of 621.26 billion Indian rupees (about 7.4 billion U.SAhmedabad Stock. dollars).For a while, the discussion of "the world's most bull stock market" was very arrogant.Under such a large selling, foreign institutions including Morgan Stanley, including Morgan Stanley, have expressed their views, saying that the Indian stock market is facing a number of short -term risks such as high valuation, monetary fiscal policy, and slowing economic growth.Asian quantitative strategist at the Bernstein Societe General Group said that the Indian market seems to be "a record high in the relative valuation of India and emerging markets, which is quite fragile in the short term."However, the views of Indian local brokers are still optimistic.In an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter Mehta Equits, senior vice president of MEHTA EQUITIES, said, "We still believe that foreign capital will return to the Indian stock market because investors will eventually realize that India will eventually recognize India compared with other emerging markets.The advantages and advantages, and re -invest and pay attention to the Indian market.The $ 100 million anchor has a record high of multiple stock indexes and options and futures of a single stock.On the whole, the bullish configuration of foreign investment in Indian stock market derivatives has reached a new high since 2015.Thanks to the rapid trend of the Indian stock market, as of the end of September, its weights in the MSCI emerging market index continued to rise to 22.14%, ranking first among the economic weight of each emerging market economy.Ridham Desai, an Indian investment strategist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in the customer report on September 4: "The rise in the index may be caused by the prosperity of the Indian stock market.The fundamental factors such as the improvement of circulation stocks and the improvement of the relative income improvement of listed enterprises.Selling, from October 1st to 14th this year, foreign investment has sold a total of 621.26 billion Indian Rubidi (about 7.4 billion US dollars).Data from the Indian Securities and Exchange Commission also show that the first week of October (September 30 ~ October 4), the Indian stock market suffered the largest net sales since January 1, 1999, and sold about 4.5 billion U.S. dollars in nets.Indian stocks.On October 3rd alone, foreign capital sold India stocks of 1.85 billion U.SUdabur Stock. dollars, setting the highest record.On the same day, the Global Fund also sold $ 1.01.7 billion in Indian bonds.On this week, the India's Nifty Index fell 4.5%, the worst weekly performance since June 2022, and continued to fall from the highest level of history (26216.05 points) and in the founding of September 26th.History high (26277.35 points).Brandt, head of the global capital flow to monitoring agency EPFR research, said that since last year, the average funds flowing into Indian stocks per week were between 400 million to 500 million US dollars.As of the week of October 2nd, foreign capital flowing into the Indian stock market fell to $ 101 million. This number has decreased significantly compared with the average level of the past year.The back of the Indian stock market on the back of the foreign investment is that the market's expectations for the Indian economy are constantly deteriorating.After experiencing high -speed growth in recent years, India's economy seems to be losing motivation.In September of this year, the indicator of India's economic health -the tax growth of goods and service tax fell to the minimum level of more than three years, and car sales as consumer indicators also fell sharply by 19%year -on -year.In the previous month, an index that tracked eight core industries such as coal, petroleum, and electricity appeared for the first time in more than three years.In addition, data recently released by the Indian Bureau of Statistics show that in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024/25 (April 2024 to June 2024), India's GDP (GDP) increased from 7.8%in the previous quarterSlowly to 6.7%, the minimum increase in five quarters, which is also a significant slower compared to 8.2%in the same period last year.Foreign media said that if the conflict of conflicts in the Middle East is upgraded, oil prices continue to rise, and the situation may become worse.More than 85%of oil consumption from India comes from imports, which makes the country vulnerable to the impact of oil prices.It is estimated that every time the price of oil rises is $ 10/barrel, India's GDP will decrease by 0.4%.The increase in fuel subsidies will also occupy other government expenditures.But last week, Indian Prime Minister Modi delivered a speech at a meeting of Indian economy, as always, optimistic about India's prospects.He believes that the world is experiencing a "Indian era".He said that the rapidly growing, favorable population structure and the emerging technology industry have made India in a "best position."Regarding the expectations of the Indian economy in the future, India's wealth management agency Mehta Equities Senior Vice President Prashanth Tapse acknowledged in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that although India's expected economic growth rate of this fiscal year is 6%~ 7%,But facing global challenges such as conflict and geopolitical tensions.Morningstar analyst Prashant Srivastava said that geopolitical tensions have been upgraded, crude oil prices have risen sharply, Indian market performance has improved, and current valuations are more attractive. They are the main reasons for recent foreign capital withdrawal from the Indian stock market.Morgan Stanley believes that the high valuation and monetary fiscal policy of the Indian stock market will turn, and the Indian economy has slowed down in the last quarter, which may become the main risk of the Indian stock market in the short term.The bank said that India's latest quarterly economic growth has slowed down, not only the first time in India's economic growth since the new crown epidemic, but also occurred at the time of Indian currency and fiscal policy.If this situation continues, the economic slowdown may become the main risk of the stock market.At the same time, the bank also saw the political risks of India, that is, "Although Modi was successful, the governing alliance he led lost a majority of parliamentary seats.Stepping on welfare expenditure.The peak return is more than 10%.The Asian quantitative strategist of Bernstein Industrial Bank Group also reduces the rating of the Indian stock market due to valuationsUdabur Wealth Management. At the same time, it is expected that the Indian stock market will rise further under the policy boost.The group's quantitative strategist Rupal Agarwal and Cheng ZHANG wrote in a report on October 10 that the Indian market seems to be "the relative valuation of India and emerging markets hit a record high in the short term".In the report of last Thursday (October 10), the bank lowered its rating of the Indian stock market from "neutral" to "reducing holdings" because foreign capital was expected to continue to withdraw, and Indian companies' profitable profit was weak.Bloomberg reported that after India introduced a number of stimulus measures, the Indian stock market rose sharply at the end of September, which led to many funds to withdraw funds from other Asian markets.Nevertheless, Indian stocks are still one of the highest valuations in the world. The MSCI India Index's one -year P / E ratio is 24 times, which is more than twice that of the MSCI India index valuation.The data compiled by Bloomberg also shows that the Indian Nifty Index's component stocks are expected to have a price -earnings ratio of 22 times a year, which is the highest in the Asian market and a premium of up to 35%from its historical average.So far this year (as of last Thursday), the cumulative investment of global funds in the Indian stock market has reached US $ 8.739 billion.In the case of a lot of foreign -funded institutions, Indian brokers are still optimistic.In an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News", Prashanth Tapse said, "Recently foreign capital withdrew from India and flowed into the Indian market.Foreign capital will return to the Indian stock market because, compared with other emerging markets, investors will eventually recognize India's advantages and advantages, and re -invest and pay attention to the Indian marketAgra Investment. "The Indian market is driven by domestic institutions and retail funds.He believes, "Therefore, any selling of foreign investors, as we saw in October 2024 (earlier), is only a short -term impact." "I believe that with the growth of India's economy, serious foreign capital will continue to stay.In India.Foreign institutions sold 1.39 trillion rupees of Indian stocks, while Indian domestic institutions bought Indian stocks of 2.91 trillion rupees.In Prashanth Tapse, the plunge in the Indian stock market since October has provided investors with an opportunity for "low suction".He pointed out to each reporter, "In the past 12 months, India has been the best market for" buying "in emerging markets. The recent plunge has also provided it for companies with low suction and even strong fundamentals.Although the opportunity has recently plunge in India, its transaction volume is still higher than other emerging markets, because India still attracts a lot of funds around the world.Daily Economic News) Disclaimer: This article is for reference only. Without verification, it is not responsible for the transaction results, and please take responsibility by yourself!